Investment Hypothesis (Updated: 31.12.2021)

Asset protection and asset consolidation while reducing external risks seem crucial in the next decade. Why? The reasons and consequences are to be explained briefly and in an easily understandable way.

In a multipolar world with the steadily rising superpower, China with possible supremacy in artificial intelligence (AI; incl. AI Singularity) and quantum computing (QC), only an economic war or actual military conflict (between the U.S. and China) is likely to stop, more flexible investment strategies are mandatory. The decline of Europe, the weakening of the USA together with the dominant positioning of the U.S. petrodollar (USD), and interventionist policies in the Eurozone are increasing volatility in markets and societies.

In addition to capital in private equity and venture capital, the right mix of the portfolio determines whether one can achieve the short-, medium- and long-term investment goals and, for example, beat the markets. In addition to investments in companies in the form of equity and shares with an acyclical and anti-cyclical focus, precious metals as a hedge, industrial metals and commodities, blockchain assets, and bitcoin as leverage must not be missing.

The Archetypical Big Cycle

To provide context for the development outlined earlier, the Archetypical Big Cycle (Source: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. Why Nations Succeed or Fail) visualized by Ray Dalio can provide vivid assistance. The western world and especially Europe are somewhere at position 14+.

The Archetypical Big Cycle by Ray Dalio

White, gray and black swans

The concept of black swans was introduced to the world by mathematician, risk manager, and best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb (source: Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game). Enclosed is an addendum for white and gray swans. An attempted forecast for the following year sees an increasing likelihood of significant social, economic, and financial impacts.

Regions

The U.S., Europe (global players and innovation drivers only), China (risk premium), and emerging markets.

Trading types

Mainly long and medium holding periods without excessive short selling, leverage, and high position turnover.

Industries

Big tech, quantum computing (QC), artificial intelligence (AI), food & beverages, water, pharma, security and defense, reinsurance, rare earths (mining, retail), precious metals (mining, retail, physical metals gold, silver, platinum, palladium), industrial metals (mining, retail, physical metals copper, nickel, aluminum), uranium, ESG (Environment, Social, Governance; opportunistic investments through politically misguided investment criteria and incentives).

Distribution

  1. <20% Precious metals (90-100% gold, <5% silver [differential taxation, duty-free warehouse], <5% platinum and palladium [duty-free warehouse])
  2. ~2% Uranium (mines, NPP operators)
  3. ~8% Commodities incl. drinking water
  4. ~20% Equity (Stock)
  5. ~20% Equity (Private Equity)
  6. ~20% Equity (Venture Capital)
  7. <20% Bitcoin and other limited cryptocurrencies (risk of over-regulation and regional prohibition through KYC, AML and ESG taxonomy legislation)
  8. <5% Cash, FIAT money (equivalent for 3-6 months in CHF, GBP, SGD, CNY, USD, etc.)

Current rates

The rates of the real asset classes and substantial values gold, silver, platinum, palladium, as well as bitcoin as another sound money next to precious metals is issued below in the FIAT currencies CHF, EUR and USD.

Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR)

The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) is a ratio that shows the relationship between the price of gold and the price of silver. For this purpose, the price for one fine ounce of gold (oz) is divided by the price for one fine ounce of silver. If the price of gold was USD 1,000 per ounce and the price of silver was USD 20 per ounce, the calculation would be: 1,000:20=50. The gold-silver ratio would therefore be 50. For one ounce of gold, you would get 50 ounces of silver.

Gold Silver Ratio USD

  1. GSR >80; Silver currently undervalued compared to Gold
  2. GSR <40; Silver currently overvalued compared to Gold
  3. GSR =40-80; over- or undervaluations not pronounced

Gold

Gold USD
Gold CHF
Gold EUR

Silver

Silber, Silver USD
Silber, Silver CHF
Silber, Silver EUR

Platinum

Platin, Platinum USD
Platin, Platinum CHF
Platin, Platinum EUR

Palladium

Palladium USD
Palladium CHF
Palladium EUR

Bitcoin

Bitcoin USD